I’m overdue to write up something explaining what’s going on in the world of US 2013 cotton acres. Of course, it has been the topic of discussion for a lot of cotton meetings this winter and the spring planting season was bumpy with weather. I figured now is as good a time as any to talk about what’s going on.

Winter Cotton Planting Projections for 2013

The winter meetings showed a range of projected acres from the USDA’s  projected 2013 U.S. cotton planted acreage of 10.0 million acres (down almost one-fifth from 2012). They said it was “due mainly to lower cotton prices and relative net returns that favor shifts to alternative crops.” The National Cotton Council’s (NCC’s) planting survey (taken in December-January) provided a lower number forecasting 9.0 million acres before prices rose a bit. The survey pointed to a movement from cotton to corn and soybeans in the Delta and the Southeast and wheat, corn and sorghum as the main replacement of cotton in the Southwest, and wheat and specialty crops taking acres from my favorite fiber in the West.

Spring Cotton Planting Results 2013

The USDA NASS issued it’s 2013 acreage report on July 28. And thankfully the USDA was closer and cotton acres didn’t drop as much as farmers had thought they may as the total came in at 10.251 million acres. That’s probably due in part to the fact that cotton prices rose a bit and spring weather in some areas made it hard to get earlier crops in the ground but it still represents a big drop from 2012.

The chart below shows which states had the largest drops.

* all numbers in thousands

I had to add the change column to see where the drops were. Then I realized I wanted to know on a percentage basis where the changes were most significant. Surprisingly, Florida and Georgia were the only cotton-producing states that had increases in planted areas with 16 percent and 1 percent increases respectively. The states with the largest percentage drops were Oklahoma (down 51%), Kansas (down 46%), Arkansas  (down 46%), Louisiana (down 43%) and both Mississippi and Tennessee cutting their acreage by a third (33% and 32% respectively). Now the watch is on to see how these acres do through the summer. Hail storms sometimes make farmers abandon acres as can drought.

Here’s hoping to a successful year for the country’s cotton farmers! I’m hoping to continue to lose weight so I will be in the market for some more jeans!

Related articles

• USDA revises 2013 cotton acreage estimate
• Cotton growers persist amid drought, storms
• USDA Acreage Report
• Farmers are Planning For Cotton Harvest as They Plant Cotton

The post 2013 Cotton Acres Early Projections & Planting Estimates appeared first on Hundred Percent Cotton.

Last year, was a first for me. It was the first time in decades that I hadn’t kicked off the new year of winter meetings with the Beltwide Cotton Conferences (aptly names as folks come from all over the Cotton Belt for this). The Beltwide I wrote a short post about it as it happened. And while I have to admit, I had a great distraction since I was in Hawaii for a short vacation before the Farm Bureau’s annual meeting set my winter into work gear.  I have to tell you, it was strange. Surreal even.

I have never been able to match the sense of community at Beltwide. The meeting draws in people from all seven segments of the cotton business — farmers, ginners, warehousemen, cottonseed handlers, merchants, cooperatives and merchandisers. That means everyone from the farm to the finished product comes! There are meetings for all segments in the same place.

That may sound like a huge number of people, but think about it with the numbers I’ll give you.

• Although there are about 2 million farms in the US, only 18,600 cotton farms.
• There are approximately 1,300 cotton gins.
• The cottonseed segment is people who crush cottonseed into oil or work with hulls, etc and it’s tight.
• and on and on.

In addition to all of those segments, you get all the researchers who are investigating new stuff and folks like me who work for companies involved in the cotton industry. Out of that small group a couple thousand of them will come to San Antonio. We are closer than the alumni of major universities — there are fewer people and we get together in person annually.

We’ll attend meetings that help us understand what we can learn from the problems we had this year and we will find out more about the new thing on the horizon. We will celebrate farmers who have had great accomplishments and some of us will think about friends who won’t be there. And we will eat great TexMex while talking to dear friends who we don’t get to see nearly enough. My friend Elton Robinson explains it all in his post encouraging others to “squeeze it for all its worth.”

And if all of that wasn’t enough to get me to pack my suitcase early, I get to present to a group during a workshop. It will be my first time to present at the Beltwide. Quite frankly, I’m psyched. So psyched in fact I’ve already polled folks about cotton and social media here on the blog! Here’s the way I explained it on the blog at work:

I get to leave my mark on the last of the Beltwide Production Conferences during a Tuesday afternoon workshop. I will be alongside two other social media users for “You Are Now the Media: Social Networking in Agriculture” Tuesday morning from 10:30 to noon. My presentation will focus on the use of smartphones in the quest to provide information in videos and photos.

Speaking at Beltwide makes this a first for me but one in which I expect to see familiar faces giving me that friendly smile like Mr. Ray & Ms Dorothy did decades ago. I have joked that my being allowed to present at a conference of PhDs and researchers indicates the end of the world as we know it. But in reality, this year marks the last Production Conference for the cotton industry. The other technical conferences will continue and I expect more people will be encouraged to use social media to both communicate their experiences and to learn from others. And if that’s the case, maybe my being on the agenda makes perfect sense.
via A Beltwide Cotton Conference First After Decades of Attending | Beyond the Rows

I would love to see some familiar faces there Tuesday! You coming?

Related articles

• Poll on Cotton & Social Media (I need your help please!)
• 2013 Farm Press High Cotton winners announced
• The 12 Days of Cotton – My Christmas Homage to My Favorite Natural Fiber

The post Beltwide Cotton Conferences — If you love cotton, you really need to be there! appeared first on Hundred Percent Cotton.

My friend David Hayden asked me today whether I had a top 10 list of cotton states. He tweeted:

@JPlovesCOTTON do you have a blog post with the top ten #cotton producing states or know where I can find such a list?

— David Hayden (@Davidhayden7) August 26, 2012

I didn’t have a top 10 post and as I sat down to research and write it, I began pondering how in the world I could work that out. I am sure that this sounds like a super easy question to lots of people but I had several ways to think about a top 10 so rather than do one, I am going to do a few of them. You can see some of the options in the text of the latest USDA Crop Production Report’s national numbers for 2012 (for 2014 cotton production, please see this post):

All cotton production is forecast at 17.7 million 480-pound bales, up 13 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 784 pounds per harvested acre, down 6 pounds from last year. Upland cotton production is forecast at 17.0 million 480-pound bales, up 15 percent from 2011. Pima cotton production, forecast at 663,000 bales, is down 22 percent from last year. Producers expect to harvest 10.8 million acres ofall cotton, up 14 percent from 2011. This harvested total includes 10.6 million acres of Upland cotton and 233,400 acres of Pima cotton.

Top 10 Cotton States in Acreage / Area to Harvest in 2012

This year, farmers in the US had some reductions in cotton acres as more farmers in the Cotton Belt looked to make money planting a corn crop. That seems to have worked well for quite a few of them too. There were more than 10.8 million acres planted to my favorite fiber though with almost half of those acres in Texas! Georgia was another big area for cotton planting and we will see whether or not Hurricane Isaac has any impact on the anticipated 1.2 million acres to be harvested there. (All numbers listed in thousands.) 

1. Texas                   5,215.5
2. Georgia               1,245
3. Arkansas             570
4. Mississippi          570
5. North Carolina   545
6. Alabama              387
7. Tennessee          375
8. California            363
9. Missouri              355
10. South Carolina   278

Top 10 Cotton States in Production / Total Number of Bales in 2012

With the incredible number of acres Texas has, it is probably no surprise that the Lone Star state takes the lead in the number of cotton bales produced! In fact, many of the top 10 states in terms of acreage do well in showing up production-wise. Note: cotton bales weigh an average of 480 pounds each and can make a lot of awesome textiles!

1. Texas                   6,725
2. Georgia               2,400
3. Arkansas             1,200
4. California            1,145
5. Mississippi          1,100
6. North Carolina   950
7. Missouri              675
8. Arizona                658
9. Tennessee          590
10. Alabama              580

Top 10 Cotton States Per Acre Production / Yield in Pounds Per Acre in 2012

You can see from this year’s numbers as well as the averages over time that areas of the Cotton Belt where weather was good for production really excelled compared to the traditional deep South areas where drought was a problem in 2012. Arizona and California tend to produce high pounds per acre whereas some of the other areas can tend to be a bit more variable.

The post Top 10 Cotton States in Area, Production, Yield & Value appeared first on Hundred Percent Cotton.

Each Monday, I get the USDA-NASS Crop Progress and Condition Report. And I frequently think I should share it with others — at least the cotton parts. But today, I am going to do it instead of just thinking about it! The report shows data for the stages of the crop we are in each week. Knowing that a lot of my corn farming friends have done posts, I figured it was time we weighed in for cotton. There are some words that you may not be familiar with so I’ll add pictures and some info to try and make sure this makes sense!

Cotton Squares

When the plant goes into fruiting mode (starts putting on blooms/flowers), the buds are very small and some folks think that the earliest part of the bud looks squared a bit cause there are generally four sides. Because the square is so small, it can be especially vulnerable to damage by insects so scouts tend to check them to make sure nothing is going to get in the way. Pinhead by the way refers to the size of the square/bud! Since Suzie Brasher Wilde posted a great album of cotton fruiting photos today on her Kissed a Farmer Facebook page and I’ve borrowed one of a square.

photo of a cotton square via Kissed a Farmer

So this week, the data on squaring shows that the vast majority of the Cotton Belt is seriously in fruiting mode! That’s a good thing. A little rain and some cooling at night may help that fruit stay on the plant.

Cotton Squaring - Selected States
[These 15 States planted 99% of the 2011 cotton acreage]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
                 :            Week ending            :           
                 :-----------------------------------:           
      State      : July 22,  : July 15,  : July 22,  : 2007-2011 
                 :   2011    :   2012    :   2012    :  Average  
-----------------------------------------------------------------
                 :                    percent                    
                 :                                               
Alabama .........:     60          91          96         80     
Arizona .........:     89          90          92         91     
Arkansas ........:     98         100         100         99     
California ......:     79          85          90         89     
Georgia .........:     77          91          93         85     
Kansas ..........:     76          79          83         85     
Louisiana .......:    100          98         100         98     
Mississippi .....:     96          98          99         98     
Missouri ........:     89          90          98         94     
North Carolina ..:     93          90          92         96     
Oklahoma ........:     40          52          60         64     
South Carolina ..:     80          80          85         84     
Tennessee .......:     91          84          93         96     
Texas ...........:     70          76          87         76     
Virginia ........:     94          90          98         85     
                 :                                               
15 States .......:     76          82          90         82     
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Cotton Setting Bolls

Setting bolls is really important because blooms/fruit/flowers can fall off the plant, pollination can fail, insects can leave damage or other things can interfere with the plant’s ability to really produce on the fruiting positions it has. Getting bolls set on the plant is critical. The photo above shows a boll that has grown fairly well on the left and just above to the right is a younger boll.

The average this year is higher than normal but you can see some states are lagging. That leaves farmers wondering whether they will have the yields they’d like — it’s especially an issue in drought-stricken areas. Cotton is a perennial plant we grow on annual schedules so cotton as a plant is most interested in the plant’s survival versus its reproduction. It always figures there will be another shot next year. ro

Cotton Setting Bolls - Selected States
[These 15 States planted 99% of the 2011 cotton acreage]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
                 :            Week ending            :           
                 :-----------------------------------:           
      State      : July 22,  : July 15,  : July 22,  : 2007-2011 
                 :   2011    :   2012    :   2012    :  Average  
-----------------------------------------------------------------
                 :                    percent                    
                 :                                               
Alabama .........:    35          39          76          43     
Arizona .........:    59          55          60          62     
Arkansas ........:    79          87          92          80     
California ......:    49          45          60          58     
Georgia .........:    47          59          67          50     
Kansas ..........:     6          19          26          10     
Louisiana .......:    91          75          87          82     
Mississippi .....:    56          63          80          70     
Missouri ........:    45          19          31          56     
North Carolina ..:    72          28          40          64     
Oklahoma ........:     4           9          16          17     
South Carolina ..:    42          20          35          30     
Tennessee .......:    40          37          55          54     
Texas ...........:    31          25          35          30     
Virginia ........:    39          10          40          48     
                 :                                               
15 States .......:    41          36          47          42     
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Cotton Condition

With all those numbers, where are we? Well, the reality is those numbers only show whether plants are fruiting. They could really be misconstrued. Just because plants are setting fruit & bolls, doesn’t mean they are on track. Drought can keep cotton plants from growing to normal heights and with the high temperatures, the plants can be pushed into fruiting too early. That means the plant may not produce as many blooms and bolls as they would in a normal year. The other thing to consider is how well the bolls are developing. But this year, the challenges cotton has are much lower than the challenges corn farmers have.

And in fact, some areas are doing pretty well. I’ve seen a couple of California farmers out there posting photos of six lock bolls! For those of you who aren’t familiar with locks, they are the sections of the cotton boll. Usually the more locks, the more seed and with more seed, comes more lint!  Here’s what it looks like:

A photo from Travis Fugitt in Bakersfield, CA of a 6 lock boll on left and 5 lock on the right.

To see what Travis and I are looking at, look at the boll the same way you would a pie chart. You want to see how many sections there are on the boll. Here’s what we see:

The way Travis & I see yield potential in a cotton boll! Counting the locks of cotton.

Each of those sections will produce cotton unless something happens so we have a crop with some excellent potential in some areas. To look forward to what these may look like in a few months, check out my post from last fall when I shared a pic of a couple of five-lock bolls that a friend gave me…. They are beautiful. And used to be really rare, like four-leaf clovers. We all prefer looking at that side of cotton production rather than short plants, blooming out the top with a few small bolls forming on them. But that’s what some folks are seeing this year. We tend not to take and share photos of that though. Some of the folks in Texas and Oklahoma are facing drought conditions for a second year in a row. That is the sort of thing that can really wear on your positive outlook.

By and large though, as you can see from the final USDA cotton chart, it is pretty clear that the cotton crop is fairing better than the corn crop in the Midwest. And unlike the corn crop, a lot of cotton varieties still have the potential to put on more fruit. The plants are nearing cut-out though and that means we need to make the most of it quickly! That can turn a fair crop into a good crop pretty quickly. So if you wouldn’t mind, keep thinking about how awesome it would be if we got some good rain!

Cotton Condition - Selected States: Week Ending July 22, 2012
[National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2011
planted acreage]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
      State     : Very poor :   Poor    :   Fair    :   Good    : Excellent 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :                          percent                          
                :                                                           
Alabama ........:    11          17          39          33           -     
Arizona ........:     1           3          20          44          32     
Arkansas .......:     3           7          28          42          20     
California .....:     -           -           5          35          60     
Georgia ........:     -           6          36          46          12     
Kansas .........:     3          13          52          27           5     
Louisiana ......:     -           2          31          54          13     
Mississippi ....:     2           4          28          42          24     
Missouri .......:    12          31          42          13           2     
North Carolina .:     -          10          27          56           7     
Oklahoma .......:     2          17          56          25           -     
South Carolina .:     1           3          35          55           6     
Tennessee ......:     3          12          36          45           4     
Texas ..........:     8          17          38          31           6     
Virginia .......:     -           -          25          66           9     
                :                                                           
15 States ......:     5          13          35          37          10     
                :                                                           
Previous week ..:     5          13          37          37           8     
Previous year ..:    23          18          30          25           4     
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

-  Represents zero.

Related posts

• Mid-July 2012 (minnesotafarm.wordpress.com)
• The Drought of 2012 – What’s the Impact to Livestock Farmers? (chrischinn.wordpress.com)
• A Look at the Arkansas Drought from the Cattle Pasture (agricultureproud.com)
• USDA, CNN Visit Our Farm to Inspect Drought 2012 Damage (thefarmerslife.wordpress.com)
• Drought 2012: Thirsty for Rain (fromheelstoboots.wordpress.com)

The post How is the US Cotton Crop Faring in the Drought? appeared first on Hundred Percent Cotton.

Water receding near West Memphis, AR

As I drove up to St. Louis last Sunday, I noticed some field work being done. Some planters running. My guess is the crop going in the ground was soybeans as we are getting too late for cotton and definitely too late for corn in Arkansas & West Tennessee. I noticed the sandbags that have been holding water back for more than a month seems to no longer have a job as water levels began going down.

I spent my week in St. Louis working and can’t get over the reports that were coming in from various parts of the Cotton Belt. To say it hurt my heart may sound like I’m overracting, but the photos really do lead to a physical reaction. It is clear there is the potential for a lot of loss. Of course, things can always turn around too and farmers are the optimistic kind.

windblown cotton seedlings in NE Ark

Throughout the week though, photos showed up from friends on social media.

My Twitter friend  Marshall Sigsby is a crop adjuster in Jonesboro, Arkansas. He is nice enough to keep me up to date on the cotton crop in his area with photos now and then.

This week, his first alert was with a photo by Logan Towles who scouts the crop in northeastern Arkansas. It was a really rough Monday near Leachville, Arkansas. It looks like the farmers here had gone so far as to have a wind break of wheat in the field to protect the seedlings and yet that was not enough. Logan also posted a photo (in below slide show) of the impact the weather had on a center pivot.

Marshall also posted a photo of the impact the drought was having in cotton fields in Wilson, Arkansas. The photo looks like something from National Geographic to me. This photo was posted Thursday morning:

Cotton hurting from drought in eastern Arkansas

flooded farm fields in Tennessee — heavy rainfall this week

So imagine the shock to plants and people when the next morning people, plants and animals in the region got rain Thursday night! It had been prayed for but some got more than they wanted. In fact my friends Marjory & Bob Walker  seem to have gotten more than their fields can handle just outside of Somerville, TN. On Friday the water was drowning out seedlings that were just emerged. Hopefully other areas got the right amounts of moisture because there is an expectation some of this may be lost.

We have a lot more of the season ahead of us but I have to say with the highest cotton prices of my career, I had truly hoped we would have a good production season. Instead for now I’m seeing drought in the Southeast & Texas and a combination of weather issues in the Mid-South. I hold out hope that things are going well in the Carolinas and maybe out west.

Please help! I would love to have happy cotton folks sending me some pictures! In fact, I am desperate to see them! I may even be willing to get in the car and drive to see it first-hand!

[slideshow]

The post Cotton 101: Early Season Weather Problems in Mid-South Cotton appeared first on Hundred Percent Cotton.